Wednesday05 February 2025
toshkent24.com

Inflation, economy, and interest rates: Expert predictions for the coming years.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has released the findings of a new macroeconomic survey in which experts assessed key indicators impacting the country's economy. These include oil prices, economic growth, inflation, the base interest rate, as well as export and import volumes and the exchange rate of the tenge. This information was reported by Bizmedia.kz.
Инфляция, экономика и ключевая ставка: прогнозы специалистов на предстоящие годы.

Experts have adjusted their forecasts for the coming years. It is anticipated that by 2025, the price of Brent oil will be around $75 per barrel, dropping to $74 in 2026, before rising again to $75 in 2027. They believe that economic growth rates will remain stable at 4.7% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026–2027.

In contrast, inflation may see a slight acceleration. The forecast for 2025 has risen to 7.5%, and for 2026, it is now projected at 6.5%. By 2027, it is expected to decrease to 5.6%. Due to rising inflation expectations, the baseline interest rate has also been revised: it is projected to be 14.7% for 2025, 11.8% for 2026, and 10.5% for 2027.

The survey included 12 organizations, comprising analytical centers, international agencies, and professional market participants.

It is important to note that the survey results do not reflect the position of the National Bank itself, but rather present independent expert opinions on the potential market developments.